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社科院发布《经济蓝皮书》:预计2021年中国经济增长7.8%左右

作者:陈泽秀 2020-12-14 20:22:47

  12YUE14RIXIAWU,YOUZHONGGUOSHEHUIKEXUEYUANZHUBANDE2021NIAN《JINGJILANPISHU》FABUHUIJIZHONGGUOJINGJIXINGSHIBAOGAOHUIZAIBEIJINGJUXING。ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUANGONGYEJINGJIYANJIUSUODANGWEISHUJI、FUSUOZHANGLIXUESONGZUOZHUTIBAOGAOSHIBIAOSHI,ZHANWANG2021NIAN,SHOUJINNIANJINGJIZENGZHANGJISHUJIAODIDEYINGXIANG,TONGSHIKAOLVDAOHONGGUANDIAOKONGDEKUAZHOUQISHEJIYUDIAOJIEYIJIGUONEIWAIDEBUQUEDINGXING,“YUJI2021NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG7.8%ZUOYOU”。

  “XIANZAIDUIMINGNIANDEYUCECHABIEHENDA,YOUDERENWEIZAI10%YISHANG。XUYAOSHUOMINGDESHI,WOMENDUI2021NIANDEYUCEZHISHIYIGECANKAO。YINWEI2021NIANTEBIESHISHANGBANNIAN,RENGRANYOUYIQINGFAZHANTAISHICHUXIANCHAOYUQIBIANHUADEFENGXIAN。”LIXUESONGBIAOSHI。

  预计今年经济增长2.2%左右

  SHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG,JINNIANYIJIDU,WOGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGTONGBIXIAJIANG6.8%;ERJIDU,SUIZHEFUGONGFUCHANYOUXUTUIJIN,JINGJIZENGZHANGTONGBIDADAO3.2%,ZENGSUSHIXIANYOUFUZHUANZHENG;SANJIDU,JINGJIYANXUWENDINGHUIFUTAISHI,TONGBIZENGZHANG4.9%。CONGQIANSANJIDUKAN,JINGJIZENGZHANGYOUFUZHUANZHENG,TONGBIZENGZHANG0.7%。

  《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU,2020NIAN,WOGUOJINGJIZHUYAOZHIBIAOCHIXUHUIFU,ZHILIXIAONENGTISHENG,JINGJIZHANGQIXIANGHAO。“JIARUJINDONGMINGCHUN,GUONEIYIQINGZHIYOUJUBULINGXINGSANFAQIEDOUNENGDEDAOYOUXIAOCHUZHI,YUJI2020NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG2.2%ZUOYOU。”

  JINQI,GUOJIZUZHIFENFENSHANGDIAO2021NIANQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGYUQI,DUIZHONGGUOJINGJIBIAOXIANDEYUQIXIANZHUHAOYUQUANQIUPINGJUNSHUIPING。IMF、SHIJIEYINXING、OECDSANDAGUOJIZUZHIDUI2021NIANZHONGGUOGDPZENGSUYUCEZHIFENBIEWEI8.2%、6.9%、6.8%,GAOYUQUANQIUPINGJUNSHUIPING3.0GE、2.7GE、1.6GEBAIFENDIAN。

  BUGUO,《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU,DANGQIANYIQINGYINGXIANGRENGZAICHIXU,ZHONGGUOJINGJIFAZHANRENGMIANLINBUSHAOKUNNAN:XUQIUDUANHUIFURENGZHIHOUYUSHENGCHANDUAN,GUONEIYOUXIAOXUQIUYOUDAISHIFANG;BUFENQIYEJINGYINGRENGJIAOWEIKUNNAN,CHUANGXINLIANDUANBANJIDAIBUQIANG;ZHONGDIANQUNTIJIUYEYALIRENGJIAOTUCHU,JIEGOUXINGSHIYEZHIYUEMINSHENGGAISHAN;DIFANGCAILIJIANNANZHICHENGDIFANGSHIQUAN,BAOJIBENMINSHENG、BAOGONGZI、BAOJICENGYUNZHUANYALIRENGRANJIAODA。

  图片来源:2021年《经济蓝皮书》

  建议2021年财政赤字率设在3%左右

  2021NIANSHISHISHI“SHISIWU”GUIHUADEKAIJUZHINIAN,ZUOHAO2021NIANDEJINGJIGONGZUOZHIGUANZHONGYAO。

  ZHONGGUOHONGGUANJINGJIYANJIUYUANJINGJIYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGSUNXUEGONGZAIFABUHUISHANGBIAOSHI,MINGNIANDEZHENGCEKENDINGYAOXIANGZHENGCHANGHUADEFANGXIANGZHUANBIAN,DANSHIZHUANBIANDEBUFAHUOZHETUISUODEBUFAYIDINGYAOBAWOHAOJIEZOU,FENTIDU、FENPICITUICHUZHICHIZHENGCE,ERBUSHIYICIXINGGUOYUJIDEZHUANXIANG。LINGWAI,ZHENGCEHAISHIYAOBAOCHIXIANGDANGDELINGHUOXING,YIYINGDUIXINCHUXIANDEWENTIHEFENGXIAN。

  “HUOBIZHENGCEBENSHENJIZHIBIJIAOLINGHUO,DANSHICAIZHENGZHENGCENIANZHONGDIAOZHENGDELINGHUOXINGBIJIAOCHA。SUOYI,NIANCHUYUSUANSHIJIUYINGGAIKAOLVZHEIGEYINSU,NAPAZHIDINGDEDEKUANYIDIAN,DANSHIXINGDESHIHOUKEYIBIJIAOYAN,ZHEIYANGBUZHIYUYOUWENTICHUXIANSHIJIAOWEIBEIDONG。”SUNXUEGONGJIANYI。

  《JINGJILANPISHU》RENWEI,2021NIANYAOJIXUSHISHIJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCE,RENGXUBAOCHIBIYAODECAIZHENGZHICHUGUIMO,YIZHICHIKUODAGUONEIYOUXIAOXUQIU、DIAOZHENGJINGJIJIEGOU,CUJINGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN。“RUOYIQINGNENGGOUDEDAOYOUXIAOKONGZHI,JIANYICAIZHENGCHIZILVANZHAO3%ZUOYOUANPAI,JIXUFAXINGZHUANXIANGZHAIQUAN,BUZAIFAXINGKANGYITEBIEGUOZHAI。”

  TONGSHI,《JINGJILANPISHU》JIANYI,JIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEYAOGENGJIAZHUZHONGTIZHIZENGXIAO。XIANZHUZENGJIAJICHUYANJIUTOURU,JIAQIANGDUI“KABOZI”XIANGMUDEYOUXIAOZHICHI。ZONGHEYUNYONGSHUISHOUYOUHUIDENGFANGSHI,TISHENGCHANYELIANSHUIPING,TUIDONGZHIZAOYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN,YINDAOZIBEN、ZIYUANXIANGZHANLVEGUANJIANLINGYUJUJIAO,GULIJINRONGJIGOUJIADADUIMINYINGQIYEHEZHONGXIAOQIYEDEZHICHILIDU。

  HUOBIZHENGCEFANGMIAN,《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU,SUIZHEGUONEIYIQINGFANGKONGXINGSHIJIBENWENDING、JINGJISHEHUIFAZHANJIAOKUAIHUIFU,HUOBIZHENGCEYINGSHISHIZHUBUTUICHUYIQINGQIJIANWENJIANPIANKUANSONGDEZHUANGTAI,HUIGUIWENJIANZHONGXING,SHIXIANGUANGYIHUOBILIANGHESHEHUIRONGZIGUIMOZENGZHANGSUDUYUMINGYIGDPZENGSUJIBENTONGBU。

  “ZHONGGUOJINGJIZAI2021NIANYI、ERJIDUDAGAILVJIANGCHUXIANYIHOUHUIFUXINGFANDAN,YUCITONGSHIYIQINGCHONGJIDAOZHIDEJIQIQIAOWEIXIAOYINGHAIHUIJINYIBUFANGDAZHUYAOJINGJIZHIBIAODEFANDANLIDU,DUICIHUOBIZHENGCEDANGJUYAOQIANZHANXINGDIYUPANHEZHENBIE,JINGTIJIQIQIAOWEIXIAOYINGDAOZHIDEWUPAN。”《JINGJILANPISHU》XIEDAO。

  “稳杠杆”或再次回归

  JINGUANJINGJICHENGXIANWENDINGHUIFUTAISHI,DANFENGXIANYINSUQUEZAIJILEI。GUOJIAJINRONGYUFAZHANSHIYANSHIFABUDEBAOGAOXIANSHI,2020NIANQIANSANJIDUGANGGANLVZENGFUWEI27.7GEBAIFENDIAN,YOUSHANGNIANMODE245.4%SHANGSHENGDAO270.1%。YOUQISHIJINQIBUFENZHAIQUANWEIYUEZHIHOU,SHICHANGDUIYUXINYONGFENGXIANDEDANYOUXIANZHUZENGJIA。

  《JINGJILANPISHU》FENXI,2020NIANSANJIDU,HONGGUANGANGGANLVYIJINGQUYUWENDING,YOUQIZAIFEIJINRONGQIYEBUMEN,GANGGANLVYIJINGCHUXIANWEIRUOXIAXING,YOUYIQINGCHONGJIDAOZHIDEHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIEDUANXINGSHANGXINGGUOCHENGYIJIBENJIESHU。WEILAIJIGEJIDU,ZHONGGUOJIANGZAICIHUIGUIDAO“WENGANGGAN”DEJINCHENGZHIZHONG,YINGGAIZHONGDIANGUANZHUSANDAFENGXIANDIAN:XINDAIYUSHITIJINGJIHUODONGCUOPEIDAILAIDEFENGXIAN、SHANGYEYINXINGDEHUAIZHANGFENGXIAN、GUOYOUDAXINGYUMINYINGZHONGXIAOYINXINGDEPUHUIDAIKUANJINGZHENGJIAJU。

  LIXUESONGRENWEI,ZAIJINGJISHANGWEIWENGUHUIFUZHIQIAN,YINGSHENSHENDIBAWOHAOFANGFENGXIANYUWENZENGZHANGZHIJIANDEPINGHENG,BIMIANCAIQUQUANMIANDEQUGANGGANCUOSHI,ERSHIYAOJIEGOUXINGWENGANGGAN、YOUGANGGAN,ANZHAOSHICHANGHUAYUANZEYUNXUGELEIZHUTIGANGGANLVYOUSHENGYOUJIANG。

  “MINGNIANDEZHENGCE,DUIFENGXIANDEFANGFANQUANZHONGKENDINGYAODADATIGAO。”SUNXUEGONGFENXI,ZAIMUQIANDEXINGSHIXIA,JINGUANMIANLINGANGGANLVGAOQIDEWENTI,DANCONGHONGGUANSHANGJIANG,ZHENGCEDEHONGGUANMIANBUNENGYIXIAZISHOUDETAIJIN,SUOYIMINGNIANFANGFENGXIAN,KENENGHUICONGWEIGUANLINGYUKAISHI,ZHONGDIANJIAQIANGWEIGUANZHUTIFANGFENGXIANDENENGLI。

  SUNXUEGONGJULICHENG,XIANZAIDEJINRONGTIXIZHONG,ZHONGXIAOYINXINGSHUYUJIAOWEIBORUODEHUANJIE,XUYAOJINYIBUBUCHONGZIBEN,JIAQIANGSUNSHIXISHOUNENGLI。CIWAI,JINNIANCHUTAIZHENGCE,YUNXUDIFANGZHENGFUYONGZHUANXIANGZHAIBUCHONGZHONGXIAOYINXINGZIBEN,DANZHIXINGSUDUJIAOMAN,YINGJINYIBUJIAQIANG,“QIANJINIANTUIDESHICHANGHUAZHAIZHUANGUZHENGCE,YEXUYAOJINYIBUWANSHAN”。

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猎金龙虎榜

2020-12-17
  • 排名 客户 收益金额
  • 1 毛先生 ¥147712
  • 2 史先生 ¥102544
  • 3 陈先生 ¥95100
  • 4 王先生 ¥87226
  • 5 郑先生 ¥81420

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