12YUE14RIXIAWU，YOUZHONGGUOSHEHUIKEXUEYUANZHUBANDE2021NIAN《JINGJILANPISHU》FABUHUIJIZHONGGUOJINGJIXINGSHIBAOGAOHUIZAIBEIJINGJUXING。ZHONGGUOSHEKEYUANGONGYEJINGJIYANJIUSUODANGWEISHUJI、FUSUOZHANGLIXUESONGZUOZHUTIBAOGAOSHIBIAOSHI，ZHANWANG2021NIAN，SHOUJINNIANJINGJIZENGZHANGJISHUJIAODIDEYINGXIANG，TONGSHIKAOLVDAOHONGGUANDIAOKONGDEKUAZHOUQISHEJIYUDIAOJIEYIJIGUONEIWAIDEBUQUEDINGXING，“YUJI2021NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG7.8%ZUOYOU”。

　　“XIANZAIDUIMINGNIANDEYUCECHABIEHENDA，YOUDERENWEIZAI10%YISHANG。XUYAOSHUOMINGDESHI，WOMENDUI2021NIANDEYUCEZHISHIYIGECANKAO。YINWEI2021NIANTEBIESHISHANGBANNIAN，RENGRANYOUYIQINGFAZHANTAISHICHUXIANCHAOYUQIBIANHUADEFENGXIAN。”LIXUESONGBIAOSHI。

　　预计今年经济增长2.2%左右

　　SHOUYIQINGYINGXIANG，JINNIANYIJIDU，WOGUOJINGJIZENGZHANGTONGBIXIAJIANG6.8%；ERJIDU，SUIZHEFUGONGFUCHANYOUXUTUIJIN，JINGJIZENGZHANGTONGBIDADAO3.2%，ZENGSUSHIXIANYOUFUZHUANZHENG；SANJIDU，JINGJIYANXUWENDINGHUIFUTAISHI，TONGBIZENGZHANG4.9%。CONGQIANSANJIDUKAN，JINGJIZENGZHANGYOUFUZHUANZHENG，TONGBIZENGZHANG0.7%。

　　《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU，2020NIAN，WOGUOJINGJIZHUYAOZHIBIAOCHIXUHUIFU，ZHILIXIAONENGTISHENG，JINGJIZHANGQIXIANGHAO。“JIARUJINDONGMINGCHUN，GUONEIYIQINGZHIYOUJUBULINGXINGSANFAQIEDOUNENGDEDAOYOUXIAOCHUZHI，YUJI2020NIANZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG2.2%ZUOYOU。”

　　JINQI，GUOJIZUZHIFENFENSHANGDIAO2021NIANQUANQIUJINGJIZENGZHANGYUQI，DUIZHONGGUOJINGJIBIAOXIANDEYUQIXIANZHUHAOYUQUANQIUPINGJUNSHUIPING。IMF、SHIJIEYINXING、OECDSANDAGUOJIZUZHIDUI2021NIANZHONGGUOGDPZENGSUYUCEZHIFENBIEWEI8.2%、6.9%、6.8%，GAOYUQUANQIUPINGJUNSHUIPING3.0GE、2.7GE、1.6GEBAIFENDIAN。

　　BUGUO，《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU，DANGQIANYIQINGYINGXIANGRENGZAICHIXU，ZHONGGUOJINGJIFAZHANRENGMIANLINBUSHAOKUNNAN：XUQIUDUANHUIFURENGZHIHOUYUSHENGCHANDUAN，GUONEIYOUXIAOXUQIUYOUDAISHIFANG；BUFENQIYEJINGYINGRENGJIAOWEIKUNNAN，CHUANGXINLIANDUANBANJIDAIBUQIANG；ZHONGDIANQUNTIJIUYEYALIRENGJIAOTUCHU，JIEGOUXINGSHIYEZHIYUEMINSHENGGAISHAN；DIFANGCAILIJIANNANZHICHENGDIFANGSHIQUAN，BAOJIBENMINSHENG、BAOGONGZI、BAOJICENGYUNZHUANYALIRENGRANJIAODA。

　　图片来源：2021年《经济蓝皮书》

　　建议2021年财政赤字率设在3%左右

　　2021NIANSHISHISHI“SHISIWU”GUIHUADEKAIJUZHINIAN，ZUOHAO2021NIANDEJINGJIGONGZUOZHIGUANZHONGYAO。

　　ZHONGGUOHONGGUANJINGJIYANJIUYUANJINGJIYANJIUSUOSUOZHANGSUNXUEGONGZAIFABUHUISHANGBIAOSHI，MINGNIANDEZHENGCEKENDINGYAOXIANGZHENGCHANGHUADEFANGXIANGZHUANBIAN，DANSHIZHUANBIANDEBUFAHUOZHETUISUODEBUFAYIDINGYAOBAWOHAOJIEZOU，FENTIDU、FENPICITUICHUZHICHIZHENGCE，ERBUSHIYICIXINGGUOYUJIDEZHUANXIANG。LINGWAI，ZHENGCEHAISHIYAOBAOCHIXIANGDANGDELINGHUOXING，YIYINGDUIXINCHUXIANDEWENTIHEFENGXIAN。

　　“HUOBIZHENGCEBENSHENJIZHIBIJIAOLINGHUO，DANSHICAIZHENGZHENGCENIANZHONGDIAOZHENGDELINGHUOXINGBIJIAOCHA。SUOYI，NIANCHUYUSUANSHIJIUYINGGAIKAOLVZHEIGEYINSU，NAPAZHIDINGDEDEKUANYIDIAN，DANSHIXINGDESHIHOUKEYIBIJIAOYAN，ZHEIYANGBUZHIYUYOUWENTICHUXIANSHIJIAOWEIBEIDONG。”SUNXUEGONGJIANYI。

　　《JINGJILANPISHU》RENWEI，2021NIANYAOJIXUSHISHIJIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCE，RENGXUBAOCHIBIYAODECAIZHENGZHICHUGUIMO，YIZHICHIKUODAGUONEIYOUXIAOXUQIU、DIAOZHENGJINGJIJIEGOU，CUJINGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN。“RUOYIQINGNENGGOUDEDAOYOUXIAOKONGZHI，JIANYICAIZHENGCHIZILVANZHAO3%ZUOYOUANPAI，JIXUFAXINGZHUANXIANGZHAIQUAN，BUZAIFAXINGKANGYITEBIEGUOZHAI。”

　　TONGSHI，《JINGJILANPISHU》JIANYI，JIJIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEYAOGENGJIAZHUZHONGTIZHIZENGXIAO。XIANZHUZENGJIAJICHUYANJIUTOURU，JIAQIANGDUI“KABOZI”XIANGMUDEYOUXIAOZHICHI。ZONGHEYUNYONGSHUISHOUYOUHUIDENGFANGSHI，TISHENGCHANYELIANSHUIPING，TUIDONGZHIZAOYEGAOZHILIANGFAZHAN，YINDAOZIBEN、ZIYUANXIANGZHANLVEGUANJIANLINGYUJUJIAO，GULIJINRONGJIGOUJIADADUIMINYINGQIYEHEZHONGXIAOQIYEDEZHICHILIDU。

　　HUOBIZHENGCEFANGMIAN，《JINGJILANPISHU》ZHICHU，SUIZHEGUONEIYIQINGFANGKONGXINGSHIJIBENWENDING、JINGJISHEHUIFAZHANJIAOKUAIHUIFU，HUOBIZHENGCEYINGSHISHIZHUBUTUICHUYIQINGQIJIANWENJIANPIANKUANSONGDEZHUANGTAI，HUIGUIWENJIANZHONGXING，SHIXIANGUANGYIHUOBILIANGHESHEHUIRONGZIGUIMOZENGZHANGSUDUYUMINGYIGDPZENGSUJIBENTONGBU。

　　“ZHONGGUOJINGJIZAI2021NIANYI、ERJIDUDAGAILVJIANGCHUXIANYIHOUHUIFUXINGFANDAN，YUCITONGSHIYIQINGCHONGJIDAOZHIDEJIQIQIAOWEIXIAOYINGHAIHUIJINYIBUFANGDAZHUYAOJINGJIZHIBIAODEFANDANLIDU，DUICIHUOBIZHENGCEDANGJUYAOQIANZHANXINGDIYUPANHEZHENBIE，JINGTIJIQIQIAOWEIXIAOYINGDAOZHIDEWUPAN。”《JINGJILANPISHU》XIEDAO。

　　“稳杠杆”或再次回归

　　JINGUANJINGJICHENGXIANWENDINGHUIFUTAISHI，DANFENGXIANYINSUQUEZAIJILEI。GUOJIAJINRONGYUFAZHANSHIYANSHIFABUDEBAOGAOXIANSHI，2020NIANQIANSANJIDUGANGGANLVZENGFUWEI27.7GEBAIFENDIAN，YOUSHANGNIANMODE245.4%SHANGSHENGDAO270.1%。YOUQISHIJINQIBUFENZHAIQUANWEIYUEZHIHOU，SHICHANGDUIYUXINYONGFENGXIANDEDANYOUXIANZHUZENGJIA。

　　《JINGJILANPISHU》FENXI，2020NIANSANJIDU，HONGGUANGANGGANLVYIJINGQUYUWENDING，YOUQIZAIFEIJINRONGQIYEBUMEN，GANGGANLVYIJINGCHUXIANWEIRUOXIAXING，YOUYIQINGCHONGJIDAOZHIDEHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIEDUANXINGSHANGXINGGUOCHENGYIJIBENJIESHU。WEILAIJIGEJIDU，ZHONGGUOJIANGZAICIHUIGUIDAO“WENGANGGAN”DEJINCHENGZHIZHONG，YINGGAIZHONGDIANGUANZHUSANDAFENGXIANDIAN：XINDAIYUSHITIJINGJIHUODONGCUOPEIDAILAIDEFENGXIAN、SHANGYEYINXINGDEHUAIZHANGFENGXIAN、GUOYOUDAXINGYUMINYINGZHONGXIAOYINXINGDEPUHUIDAIKUANJINGZHENGJIAJU。

　　LIXUESONGRENWEI，ZAIJINGJISHANGWEIWENGUHUIFUZHIQIAN，YINGSHENSHENDIBAWOHAOFANGFENGXIANYUWENZENGZHANGZHIJIANDEPINGHENG，BIMIANCAIQUQUANMIANDEQUGANGGANCUOSHI，ERSHIYAOJIEGOUXINGWENGANGGAN、YOUGANGGAN，ANZHAOSHICHANGHUAYUANZEYUNXUGELEIZHUTIGANGGANLVYOUSHENGYOUJIANG。

　　“MINGNIANDEZHENGCE，DUIFENGXIANDEFANGFANQUANZHONGKENDINGYAODADATIGAO。”SUNXUEGONGFENXI，ZAIMUQIANDEXINGSHIXIA，JINGUANMIANLINGANGGANLVGAOQIDEWENTI，DANCONGHONGGUANSHANGJIANG，ZHENGCEDEHONGGUANMIANBUNENGYIXIAZISHOUDETAIJIN，SUOYIMINGNIANFANGFENGXIAN，KENENGHUICONGWEIGUANLINGYUKAISHI，ZHONGDIANJIAQIANGWEIGUANZHUTIFANGFENGXIANDENENGLI。

　　SUNXUEGONGJULICHENG，XIANZAIDEJINRONGTIXIZHONG，ZHONGXIAOYINXINGSHUYUJIAOWEIBORUODEHUANJIE，XUYAOJINYIBUBUCHONGZIBEN，JIAQIANGSUNSHIXISHOUNENGLI。CIWAI，JINNIANCHUTAIZHENGCE，YUNXUDIFANGZHENGFUYONGZHUANXIANGZHAIBUCHONGZHONGXIAOYINXINGZIBEN，DANZHIXINGSUDUJIAOMAN，YINGJINYIBUJIAQIANG，“QIANJINIANTUIDESHICHANGHUAZHAIZHUANGUZHENGCE，YEXUYAOJINYIBUWANSHAN”。

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