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季峥:黄金冲高回落 中线上车时机何时到来

来源:和讯网 2020-12-14 14:13:21

  SHANGZHOUHUANGJINCHONGGAOHUILUO,DUIYUHUANGJINHOUSHIZOUSHI,SHICHANGRENGYOUBIJIAODADEFENQI。WOGERENDEGUANDIANSHI,DUANXIANHUANGJINKONGPARENGYOUZHENDANG。JISHUSHANG,XIANHUOHUANGJIN1850MEIYUANSHIQIANQIZHONGYAODEYALIQUYU,SUOYIZAIZHEIGEQUYUCHONGGAOHUILUO,JISHUSHANGSHUYUZHENGCHANGXIANXIANG。BENZHOUKENENGHAIYOUTANDIGUOCHENG,XIAFANGKEYIXIANGUANZHU1820MEIYUANZHICHENG。DANSHIHUANGJINZHONGXIANKEYILEGUAN。

  XIAOXIMIANSHANG,JUNIUYUESHIBAO,SHANGZHOUMEIGUOSHIPINYAOPINGUANLIJU(FDA)PIZHUNLEHUIRUIHEBioNTechDEXINGUANYIMIAOJINJISHIYONGSHOUQUAN(EUA)SHENQING。ZHEIYIWEIZHEMEIGUODIYIZHIXINGUANYIMIAOZHENGSHIHUOPI,SHUBAIWANDEGAOFENGXIANRENQUNJIANGZAIJITIANNEIKAISHIJIEZHONGYIMIAO。TELANGPUBIAOSHI,DIYIPIYIMIAOJIANGZAI24XIAOSHINEITOURUSHIYONG。HUIRUICIQIANGUJI,JIANGZAIJINNIANNIANDIQIANTIGONG2500WANJIGAIYIMIAO,MINGNIANSANYUEQIANTIGONG1YIJI,MIANFEIXIANGMEIGUOGONGMINFAFANG。

  11YUE9RI,YIMIAOJIJIANGSHANGSHIDEXIAOXI,DAOZHIHUANGJINCONG1900MEIYUANSHANGFANGDAFUDIELUODAO1850MEIYUAN。ZHIHOUDEJICIYIMIAOXIANGGUANXIAOXIGONGBUZHIHOU,HUANGJINYECHUXIANFEICHANGMINGXIANDEXIADIE,DANSHIXIANZAISUIZHEYIMIAOZHENGSHIZAIMEIGUOLUODI,MUQIANHUANGJINDUIXIAOXIDEFANYINGYIJING“MIANYI”。ZHEIYEZHENGMING,BIZHEZHIQIANDEPANDUAN,YIMIAOSHANGSHIDUIYUHUANGJINBUGOUCHENGSHIZHIXINGDELIKONG。FANERSHIZHONGQILIDUODEXIAOXI。

  这是什么逻辑?

  YIMIAOSHANGSHI,YOULIYUJINGJIXUNSUHUIFU,DUISHANGPINXUQIUSHANGSHENGYIJISHANGPINJIAGESHANGZHANG,DOUHUICIJITONGZHANGJINYIBUSHANGSHENG。HUANGJINYESHISHANGPIN,ZAISHANGPINSHANGZHANGDEGUOCHENGZHONG,HUANGJINYEHUISHOUYI。DAJIAKEYIKANDAOZUIJINYUANYOUHETONGDOUZAICHIXUBUDUANDEXINGAO,JINGJIHAIMEIYOUHUIFU,DANSHISHANGPINJIAGEYIJINGQILAILE,JIUSHIZHEIZHONGYUQIDESHICHANGFANYING。

  HUANGJINCHULESHOUYIYUTONGZHANGDESHANGSHENGZHIWAI,HAIYOUYIGEGENGWEIZHONGYAODEYINSU,JIUSHIMEIYUANZAIJIEXIALAIDELIANGNIANDAGAILVWEICHIFULILVZHUANGTAI。YEJIUSHISHUO,ZHANGQIGUOZHAISHOUYILVJIANGSUIZHEJINGJIHUIFUERSHANGSHENG,DANSHITONGZHANGYINGGAIHUISHANGDEGENGKUAI,SUOYIMEIYUANDESHIJILILVWEIFU。

  WEISHENMESHIJILILVHUIFU?YIFANGMIAN,MEILIANCHUBUHUIZAIZUIJINLIANGNIANJIAXI,LINGWAIYIFANGMIAN,MEILIANCHUHUIGOUMAIZHANGQIGUOZHAILAIJINLIANGYADIGUOZHAISHOUYILV,JIUSHIHUIYADILILVSHUIPING。ZHEIYANGDEJIEGUOJIUSHIMEIYUANZHANGQIBAOCHIZAIFULILVDESHUIPINGSHANG。

  美元实际利率=名义国债利率-通胀率

  6-7YUEFEN,SHIJILILVXIAXING,HUANGJINJIAGESHANGZHANG。8-10YUEFEN,SHIJILILVSHANGXING,HUANGJINJIAGEXIADIE。JINQIWOMENKEYIKANDAO,MEIYUAN10NIANQIGUOZHAIDESHOUYILVCHIXUXIAXING。RUXIATU。11YUE9RISHI-0.77%,12YUE11RISHI-0.97%。FANYINGLEMUQIANTONGZHANGSUDUMINGXIANKUAIYUGUOZHAISHOUYILVDEQINGKUANG。ZHEISHIZHICHENGHUANGJINJIAGEZHONGYAOYINSU。

  HUANGJINZHONGQIKANZHANGDELINGWAIYIGEZHONGYAOYINSUSHI,MEIGUOJIJIANGTUICHUXINYILUNJINGJICIJIJIHUA。9YUEFENYILAI,ZHIYAOYOUGUANJINGJICIJIFANGANJIJIANGTUICHUDEXIAOXIJIUHUIMINGXIANCIJIHUANGJINJIAGESHANGZHANG,FANZHI,ZEHUIDAOZHIHUANGJINJIAGECHUXIANMINGXIANXIADIE。

  SUIRANMUQIANMINZHUDANGHEGONGHEDANGZAIJUTITIAOKUANRENGYOUBUSHAOFENQI,DANSHIJINNIANNIANDIHUOMINGNIANNIANCHU,DACHENGXINYILUNJINGJICIJIFANGANYINGGAISHIDAGAILVDE,QIEGUIMODAGAISHIZAI9000YIMEIYUANZUOYOU。SUIRAN9000YIMEIYUANDEGUILVSHIMINGXIANDIYUZHIQIANDEGUIMO,DANSHIRENGSHIMEIGUO2020NIANGDPDE5%ZUOYOU。

  经济刺激方案对于黄金的影响有两个方面:

  DIYI,SHIYOULIYUMEIGUOJINGJIHUIFU,TONGZHANGSHANGSHENG,ZHEIGELUOJIHEYIMIAOSHANGSHIDELUOJIXIANGSI。

  DIER,DAGUIMODEJINGJICIJIJIHUA,YIWEIZHEMEIGUOCAIZHENGFUDANJINYIBUJIADA,MEIYUANJIAZHIDEXISHI,SUOYICIJIFANGANCHUTAI,HUICHUXIANMEIYUANXIADIEHEHUANGJINSHANGZHANGDESHICHANGBIAOXIAN。

  BENZHOUHAIYOUYIGEZHONGYAOKANDIANSHI,2020NIANMEILIANCHUZUIHOUYICIYIXIHUIYIJIANGJUXING。BUGUOZHEISHIDUANQIYINSU,BUYINGXIANGZHONGQIFANGXIANG。ZHUYAOGUANZHULIANGDIAN:

  1、MEILIANCHUDUI2021NIANJINGJIHETONGZHANGDEPINGGUSHIFOUYOUBIANHUA。RUGUOGENGWEILEGUAN,ZEDUIHUANGJINLIKONG,RUGUOGENGWEIJINSHEN,ZEDUIHUANGJINLIDUO。

  2、MEILIANCHUDUIZICHANGOUMAIJIHUASHIFOUYOUSHENMEBIANHUA。JINQIMEILIANCHUDEZICHANFUZHAIBIAOYOUMINGXIANDEKUOZHANXINGWEI。JIEZHIDAO12YUE4RI,MEILIANCHUDEZICHANFUZHAIBIAOYIJINGDAOLISHIZUIGAOSHUIPING。10YUECHUDAO12YUE4RI,ZENGJIA1700YIMEIYUAN。ZHEIYESHIDUIHUANGJINBIJIAOYOULIDEXINXI。

  SHANGMIANTANDESHIMEIGUOYIQING、JINGJIDUIHUANGJINDEYINGXIANG。SHICHANGSHANG,CHULEMEIGUOZHIWAI,OUZHOUXIAOXIYEDUIHUANGJINBIJIAOYOULI。

  YIFANGMIANOUZHOUYIQINGYANJUN,JINQIDEGUODANRIXINZENGQUEZHENBINGLISHUHEXINZENGSIWANGBINGLISHUDOUCHUANGXIAYIQINGBAOFAYILAIXINGAO。DEGUOJIANGCONG12YUE16RIKAISHIJINRUYINGXINGFENGSUO,GUANBIFEIBIYAODESHANGDIAN,DUNCUGUZHUGUANBIGONGZUOCHANGSUO,BINGGULIXUESHENGLIUZAIJIAZHONG。BAOKUOZAIXINNIANQIJIANJINZHIJUHUIDENGGENGWEIYANGEDEXIANZHIJIANGZHISHAOCHIXUDAO1YUE10RI。

  YIFANGMIANOUYANGXINGJIANGGUIMO1.35WANYIOUYUANDEOUZHOUJINJIKANGYIGOUZHAIJIHUA(PEPP)ZAIZENGJIA5000YIOUYUAN,TONGSHIPEPPJIANGZHISHAOCHIXUZHI2022NIAN3YUEDI。

  OUMENGSHOUNAOMENZAIOUMENGFENGHUISHANGPIZHUNLEYOUGONGTONGZHAIWUZHICHIDE2.2WANYIMEIYUANYUSUANYUCIJIJIHUA,ZHEIYIZUIXINXIEYIWEIOUMENG2021ZHI2027NIANDE1.1WANYIOUYUANQINIANYUSUANANSHISHIPUPINGLEDAOLU,YEDAIBIAOJIAZHI7500YIOUYUAN(YUEHE9090YIMEIYUAN)DEKANGYIYUANZHUJIJINKEYITONGGUOGONGTONGZHAIWUHUODEZIJINLAIYUAN。

  XIANZAIXIFANGGUOJIAMEIYOUDAGUIMOCAIZHENGCIJISIHUWANQUANMEIYOUBANFAZOUCHUJINGJIPIRUODENITAN。DANSHIZHEIZHONGCIJIDEJINGJIXIAOLVSHIHENDIDE。BIAOXIANWEIZUIJIN10NIANLAI,ZHAIWUDEZENGZHANGGAOYUJINGJIDEZENGZHANG。MEIYIYUANJINGJIDEZENGZHANG,XUYAOCHAOGUOYIYUANDEZHAIWU。SUOYIDUIYUHUANGJINZHONGZHANGQIYESHIYOULIDE。

  ZONGTIERYAN,YIMIAOSHANGSHI,MEIGUOHEOUMENGDAGUIMOJINGJICIJIFANGAN,YANGXINGDECHAOKUANSONGDEHUOBIZHENGCE,DOUSHICIJIHUANGJINJIAGEZHONGQIZOUQIANGDEYINSU。JIASHANGMEINIAN12YUEDAO1YUESHIHUANGJINJIJIEXINGBIAOXIANDOUXIANGDANGBUCUO,SUOYIWODUIHUANGJIN12YUEXIAXUNYIJI1YUEFENDEZOUSHIBAOCHILEGUANDETAIDU。

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(本文内容仅供参考,并不构成投资建议!投资者据此操作,风险自担。)

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猎金龙虎榜

2020-12-21
  • 排名 客户 收益金额
  • 1 毛先生 ¥186948
  • 2 陈先生 ¥162000
  • 3 史先生 ¥127090
  • 4 徐先生 ¥105900
  • 5 袁先生 ¥81000

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