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石油仍是最便宜的“通货再膨胀”资产吗?

来源:智通财经 2020-12-14 14:07:11

  HUOXI,LUNDUNZIXUNGONGSIEnergy AspectsDELIANHECHUANGSHIRENAmrita SenJINRIBIAOSHI:“ZAISUOYOUTONGHUOZAIPENGZHANGZICHANZHONG,SHIYOUSHIZUIBIANYIDE。”TAYUJI,SUIZHEYIMIAODETUICHU,TOUZIZHEJIANGKAISHIZHONGFANSHIYOUXINGYE,YOUJIAJIANGJIXUZOUQIANG。

  CONGNENGYUANGUBIAOSHENGHEBULUNTEYUANYOUJIAGEZI3YUEYILAISHOUCITUPO50MEIYUANLAIPANDUAN,TOUZIZHESIHUZHENGJITIHUIGUI。

  SUIRANZAIMEIGUOGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANFANFULAIXI,DANSUIZHEDIERBOFENGSUOCUOSHIDEFANGSONG,OUZHOUDEXUQIUZHENGZAIFANDAN,YAZHOUJIXUXINADALIANGYUANYOU。

  在世界部分地区,需求已经复苏。

  YINDUZUIDADELIANYOUSHANGSHANGZHOUBIAOSHI,QIGONGCHANGZHENGZAIKAIZUMALIJINXINGJIAGONG,YUJIRANLIAOXUQIUJIANGCHUXIAN“VXING”FANDAN。ZUOWEIQUANQIUDIERDAHEDISIDASHIYOUXIAOFEIGUO,ZHONGGUOHERIBENDEQIYOUXIAOFEIYECHUYUHUOJIEJINGONGGONGWEISHENGWEIJIQIANDESHUIPING。DAOLUSHIYONGHEJIAOTONGZHISHUXIANSHI,SUIZHEYINGGUO、XIBANYAHEFAGUODENGZHENGFUFANGSONGJIAOTONGFENGSUO,QIYEZHONGJIANKUCUNYIJISHENGDANGOUWUJIQUANMIANZHANKAI,OUZHOUGONGLUHUOYUNLIANGDAFUZOUGAO。ERMEIGUOZAIFUSUJINCHENGFANGMIANJIXULUOHOU。

  The Bear Traps ReportCHUANGSHIRENLarry McDonaldDUICIBIAOSHIZANTONG,TADUI2021NIANCHILEGUANTAIDU,YUJIYINIANHOUYUANYOUJIAGEJIANGDADAO80MEIYUAN。

  LarryRENWEI,QUANQIUJINGJIZHENGCHUYUCONGYIDAIRENZHIHUIJINGLIYICIDECHONGJIZHONGFUSUDEZAOQIJIEDUAN。CONGJINGJIXUEDEJIAODULAIKAN,YIBANQINGKUANGXIACHONGJIBUSHIJIYUXUQIU,JIUSHIJIYUGONGYING,ERGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANCHONGJISHIJISHANGSHILIANGZHEJIANERYOUZHI。JIUSHIYOUERYAN,HANGBANTINGFEI、FENGSUOYIJIZONGTIBUQUEDINGXINGDEJIAJU,DOUYIWEIZHEJINNIANSHIYOUHESHIYOUGONGSIDEGUJIABIAOXIANFEICHANGZAOGAO。ZAIZHEICHANGFENGBAOBEIJINGXIA,TOUZIZHEDEGUANZHUZHONGDIANJIANGSHISHEIHUICHENGWEIXINGCUNZHE,YINWEICONGJINGYINGGANGGANDEJIAODULAIKAN,NENGGOUTINGGUOZHEICICHONGJIDEGONGSIJIANGCHUYUYOULIDIWEI,BIRUJINGZHENGJIANRUO,CIWAI,ZHEIXIEGONGSIHAIYOUWANGCONGBUDUANBIANHUADEQUANQIUFENGXIANLANGCHAOZHONGHUOYI。

  XINXINGSHICHANGGUOJIAZHENGSHOUYIYUMEIYUANZOURUOHERENMINBIZOUQIANG。ZAIQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUDEZAOQIJIEDUAN,MEIGUODENGJINGJIQIANGGUOSHISHIDECIJICUOSHIZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGDUIQUANQIUJINGJI、YOUQISHIXINXINGSHICHANGCHANSHENGJIJIYINGXIANG,YEYOULIYUSHIYOUSHANGZHANG。

  DANGJINGJIZENGZHANGHEMAOYIHAOZHUANSHI,SHIYOUJIYUSHIYOUXIANGGUANDEGONGSITONGCHANGBIAOXIANLIANGHAO。LarryRENWEI,RUGUOZENGZHANGHEXUQIUDAOZHI2021NIANYOUJIAZHONGXINDIAOGAO,NEIMEOPEC+HEMEIGUOYEYANQIDEGONGYINGFANYINGJIANGHUIGENGJIAWENHE。LarryXIANGXIN,DAGUIMODECAIZHENGCIJICUOSHIZHIHUIJIAQIANGZHEIZHONGSHITOU,DUI2021NIANSHIYOUJISHIYOUXIANGGUANQIYEYINGGAISHIYOULIDE。

  BUGUO,LarryDEBAOGAOZHICHU,YOUYIXIEDUANQIWENTIXUYAOGUANZHU。SHIYOUSHICHANGZAIDUANQINEIYIJINGDUIXUDUOYINSUZUOCHULEFANYING,BAOKUODANGQIANDUIGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANDEDANYOU,YIJIJINGJIFENGSUOHEYILANGHUIFUSHENGCHANJIANGDAILAIDEDUANQIXUQIUWENTI。RANER,SHIYOUSHICHANGYIRANMIANLINZHEYILANGDENGGUOJIAZENGJIASHIYOUCHANLIANGDEFENGXIAN。BUGUO,OPEC+ZAIJUEDINGMINGNIANQIMEIRIZENGCHAN50WANTONGSHIYINGGAIKAOLVGUOZHEIGEWENTI。ZENGCHANJUEDINGKENENGYIWEIZHESHIYOUGONGYINGYIJINGMIANLINDUANQUE,EROPEC+ZHENGSHITUBIMIANYOUJIAKUAISUSHANGZHANG。

  NENGYUANGUZAIDANGQIANSHICHANGSHANGDEBIAOXIANFEICHANGHAO,ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,YOUJIAKENENGMIANLINYALI,ERGUPIAOKENENGHUIBIAOXIANDEGENGHAO,YINWEIZUIJINDEJIAZHI/ZENGZHANGLUNHUANSIHUYIJINGJIESHU。

  YIXIAJIFANGMIANDEJIJIYINSUJIANGYOULIYUDIXIAOGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANJIXINZENGGONGYINGDENGDUISHIYOUSHICHANGDEBULIYINGXIANG:

  1)原油价差已转为现货溢价,表明现货市场趋紧

  2)布伦特原油与WTI原油的价差为6个月来最大,表明市场呈现趋紧态势

  3)The Bear Traps ReportRENWEIDAXIYANGPENDIXIANHUOYUANYOUHEYAZHOULIANYOULIRUNLVSHITUIDONGSHIYOUSHICHANGCHIXUSHANGZHANGDEZHUYAOYINSU,ZUIJINZHEILIANGGEZUIZHONGYAODEXIANHUOSHICHANGZHIBIAODOUYOUSUOGAISHAN。

  RENMENYAZHUZHEIXIESHIWUSHICHANGZHIBIAOHUIYINWEIGONGGONGWEISHENGSHIJIANEREHUA,DANMUQIANTAMENXIANSHICHUSHICHANGGONGBUYINGQIU。

  然而,部分分析人士认为中期复苏并没有那么乐观。

  IHS MarkitXINJIAPONENGYUANZIXUNBUMENFUZONGCAIVictor ShumBIAOSHI:“XIANZAI,YOUJIAYIJINGZAINEIGECHONGMANXIWANGDEWEILAIDINGJIALE。”“ERWOMENBIXUYINGDUIJIJIANGDAOLAIDEHEIANDONGTIAN。”

  YANJIUJIGOUZHICHU,YOULIYOURENWEI,MUQIANYOUJIAZUIGAOKENENGDADAO50MEIYUAN。YOUJIAKENENGHUIXIYINCONGBAGEDADAOEKELAHEMAZHOUDESHENGCHANSHANGZENGJIACHANLIANG。OPEC+NEIBUCUNZAIFENQI,YIXIECHENGYUANGUODUIGAIZUZHIZIXINGSHIJIADEGONGYINGXIANZHIGANDAOBUMAN。

  BAOKUOEd MorseZAINEIDEHUAQIFENXISHIBIAOSHI:“YOUJIACHIXUSHANGZHANGKENENGHUISHIOPEC+BUZAINEIMEBAOSHOU,CONGERTUIDONGJIAGEHUILUO。”

  CIWAI,XIANHUOYIJIAXIYINLETOUJIZHE。JIANADAHUANGJIAYINXINGFENXISHIMichael TranBIAOSHI,JINRONGSHIYOUSHICHANGFASHENGLEMINGXIANDEBIANHUA,TOUJIZHEZHENGZAIMAIRUBINGCHIYOUQIHUO,DANXINHUICUOGUOJINYIBUDEFANDAN。

  NEIME,SHIYOUZHENDESHIZUIBIANYIDETONGHUOZAIPENGZHANGZICHANMA?HAISHIYOUYIMIAOYIJI“FOMO(HAIPACUOGUO)”DEKUANGREQINGXUSUOYINFADEGUODUTOUJI?

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(本文内容仅供参考,并不构成投资建议!投资者据此操作,风险自担。)

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猎金龙虎榜

2020-12-17
  • 排名 客户 收益金额
  • 1 毛先生 ¥147712
  • 2 史先生 ¥102544
  • 3 陈先生 ¥95100
  • 4 王先生 ¥87226
  • 5 郑先生 ¥81420

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