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浙商证券--再通胀系列研究:2021年从再通胀的到信用收缩

来源:金融界 2020-12-14 10:56:17

  【研究报告内容摘要】

  2021NIANYINGXIANGZIBENSHICHANGDELIANGXIANGHEXINLUOJIFENBIESHIZAITONGZHANG(YUQI)YUXINYONGSHOUSUO。YIQINGHOUQUANQIUM2ZENGZHANGDAILAITONGZHANGYUQI,DANWOMENRENWEIBENLUNSHANGPINJIAGESHANGXINGBINGFEISHOULIUDONGXINGYINGXIANG,CONGTONGZHANGCHANGJIANDESANZHONGQUDONGYINSU(HUOBICHAOFA、GONGJISHOUSUO、XUQIULADONG)KAN,DANGQIANJUNWUZHANGQIKECHIXULUOJI,BENLUNZHONGMEIXUQIUXIUFUJIANGLINGXIANQUANQIUDAXINGJINGJITI,2021NIANTONGZHANGTONGBIZENGSUGUAIDIANJUNJIANGWEIYUERJIDU,NIANMOTONGZHANGJUNDIYUYIQIANSHUIPING。XINYONGSHOUSUOFANGMIAN,GUOYUJIWOGUO2021NIANYIJIDUMOKAISHIXINYONGSHOUSUO,SHOUZHENGCETUIPOYINGXIANG,JINGJI、TONGZHANGZHUJIANHUILUO,YINGSHEDAOZICHANPEIZHIZHONG,TOUZILUOJIZHUJIANBIANWEIFANGSHOU,DALEIZICHANJIANGSHIGUPIAOJINBAOLONGTOUJIAZHI,LILVZHAIQIANG、XINYONGZHAIRUODEGEJU。

  QIUQUANQIUM2ZENGZHANGDAILAITONGZHANGYUQI,DANBENLUNSHANGPINJIAGESHANGXINGBINGFEISHOULIUDONGXINGYINGXIANG2020NIANH2YILAI,BUFENSHANGPINJIAGEDEKUAISUSHANGZHANGDIEJIAYANGXINGLIUDONGXINGDETIANLIANGTOUFANGZHUJIANCUISHENGSHICHANGTONGZHANGYUQI,RANERBENLUNSHANGPINJIAGESHANGZHANGBINGBUSHIYOULIUDONGXINGTOUFANGSUOZHI。SHIJIYUANYINYISHIYIHOUJINGJIXIUFUDAIDONGSHENGCHANHUINUANJIERTUISHENGSHANGPINJIAGESHANGXING;ERSHIYIQINGDAOZHISHENGCHANGUO(YOUQISHILAMEIGUOJIA)JIEDUANXINGDEGONGJISHOUSUOYEDUITUISHENGJIAGEFAHUILEZHONGYAOYINGXIANG;SANSHIBAIYINDENGBUFENSHANGPINJIANJUGONGYEYUBIXIANSHUXING,QIJIAGEZAIYIQINGFANFUDEGUOCHENGZHONGSHOUYIJIAODUO。ZONGSHANG,BENLUNSHANGPINJIAGESHANGXINGBUNENGYULIUDONGXINGJIANDANGUAGOU,DANGQIANDETONGZHANGYUQISHIFOUKECHIXURENGXUCONGTONGZHANGCUIDONGDEBENZHIYINSUZHESHOUFENXI。

  TONGZHANGCHANGJIANDESANZHONGQUDONGYINSUZAIDANGQIANJUNWUZHANGQIKECHIXULUOJITONGZHANGYOUSANZHONGCHANGJIANQUDONGYINSU。YISHIHUOBICHAOFAXINGTONGZHANG,DANFADAGUOJIAJINRONGXINGYEFADA,CHAOFAHUOBIJUNDUNJIZAIJINRONGTIXINEI,LIURUCUNKUANZHUNBEIJINHEGUPIAOSHICHANGLIANGDAXUSHUICHI,XIANYOUJINRUSHITITUISHENGTONGZHANGDEANLI。ERSHIGONGJISHOUSUOXINGTONGZHANG,GAILEIXINGTONGZHANGDEDIANXINGYOUYINSHIYOUZHANZHENGHUOZIRANZAIHAIDENGSHIJIANXINGCHONGJISHIDESHANGPINGONGJISHOUSUOCONGERTUISHENGJIAGESHANGXING,BAIDENGSHANGRENHOUKENENGZHONGFANYIHEXIEYIBINGWENDINGZHONGDONGJUSHIJIANGJIANSHAOZHANZHENGFENGXIAN;LANINAXIAOYINGDUISHIPINJIAGEDEJIEDUANXINGTUISHENGZUOYONGTONGYANGBUKECHIXU。SANSHIXUQIULADONGXINGTONGZHANG,XIANGJIAOYIQINGQIAN,WOMENRENWEI2021NIANZAIXUQIUDUANTUISHENGTONGZHANGCHIXUSHANGSHENGDEZENGLIANGTUPOYINSUJIAONANCHUXIAN。BENLUNZHIZAOSHANGQUKUBUJILINGSHOUSHANG,ZHIZAOSHANGBUKUDUISHANGPINJIAGEJITONGZHANGDELADONGZUOYONGXIANGDUIYOUXIAN;BAIDENGSUOCHANGDAODEJIJIANTOUZI2021NIANDAGAILVWUFALUODI;FANGDICHANTOUZIDAIDONGDEZIBENKAIZHIZENGSUKENENGYUH2ZHUJIANHUILUO。

  ZHONGMEITONGZHANGZENGSUGAODIANYUJUNWEIYU2021NIANERJIDUBENLUNZHONGMEIXUQIUXIUFUJIANGLINGXIANQUANQIUDAXINGJINGJITI,TONGZHANGTONGBIZENGSUGAODIANJUNWEIYUERJIDU,NIANMOTONGZHANGJUNDIYUYIQIANSHUIPING。ZHONGGUOFANGMIAN,SHOUYIYUJINGJIFUSUHEQIAOWEIYINSU,CPIHEPPIJIANGZAIERJIDUDADAOGAODIAN,ZUIGAOHUOCHUJI2.4%,NIANMOHUILUOZHI1.5%。MEIGUOFANGMIAN,ERJIDUYIMIAOZHUSHEDETUIJINJIANGXIANZHUXIUFUMEIGUOXUQIU,2020NIANERJIDUGONGYESHENGCHANTINGZHIYUYUANYOUXIADIEDAOZHITONGQIJIAOTONGYUNSHUFENXIANGDECHAODIJISHUXIAOYINGJINYIBULAGAOZENGSU,CPIHEPPIZENGSUTONGYANGZAIERJIDUCHUJIGAODIAN,ZUIGAOHUOTUPO5%,NIANMOHUILUOZHI2.1%(RUYOUJIACHAOYUQI,HUOSHENGZHI2.3%YISHANG,DANRENGNANCHAOYIQIANSHUIPING)。

  GUOWOGUO2021NIANNIANYIJIDUMOKAISHIXINYONGSHOUSUO,TOUZILUOJIZHUJIANBIANWEIFANGSHOU2020NIANWOGUOYANGXINGBAOJIUYEDEMUBIAOJIBENWANCHENG,WEILAIXUGUANZHUQISHOUYAOMUBIAOYOUQUESHIQIEHUANZHIJINRONGWENDINGERSHOUJIN,SANJIDUHUOBIZHENGCEZHIXINGBAOGAOZHAIYAOSHOUCITICHU“BAOCHIHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIBENWENDING”DECUOCI,TIXIANYANGXINGGUANZHUJINRONGWENDINGWENTI,HOUXUWENDINGHONGGUANGANGGANLVJIANGZHUJIANCHENGWEIZHENGCEZHONGDIAN。DANGQIANYANGXINGWEICHILIUDONGXINGJINPINGHENG,DR007JIANGWEICHIKUANFUZHENDANG,SHENZHITAISHENGGAODIAN,ZAIWENDINGGANGGANLVDEQINGKUANGXIA,YUJI2021NIANYIJIDUKENENGSHIYANGXINGJINHUOBIDEWEISHENGYUJINXINYONGDEKAISHI,YUCE2021NIANNIANNIANQUANNIANM2ZENGSUHUILUOZHI9.5%-10%ZUOYOU,RENMINBIXINDAIZENGSUHUILUOZHI11%ZUOYOU,SHERONGZENGSUZHIHUILUOZHI10.9%ZUOYOU。SHOUZHENGCETUIPOYINGXIANG,JINGJI、TONGZHANGYEJIANGSHIZHUJIANHUILUODEZOUSHI。YINGSHEDAOZICHANPEIZHIZHONG,TOUZILUOJIZHUJIANBIANWEIFANGSHOU,DALEIZICHANJIANGSHIGUPIAOJINBAOLONGTOUJIAZHI,LILVZHAIQIANG、XINYONGZHAIRUODEGEJU。

  FENGXIANTISHI:MEIGUOHUOYINDUJIJIANLUODICHAOYUQI,QUDONGQUANQIUJINGJICHAOYUQIXIUFU;WOGUODUOXIANGZHENGCETUICHUXIANGHUDIEJIA,YINFAXINYONGSHOUSUOFENGXIAN

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猎金龙虎榜

2020-12-17
  • 排名 客户 收益金额
  • 1 毛先生 ¥147712
  • 2 史先生 ¥102544
  • 3 陈先生 ¥95100
  • 4 王先生 ¥87226
  • 5 郑先生 ¥81420

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