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国君策略:调整便是布局良机 推荐原材料周期、可选消费、新能源

来源:金融界 2020-12-14 09:32:23

  本报告导读

  3100-3500ZHENDANG,DIAOZHENGBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI。GUONEIZHENGCEZHENGCHANGHUA,YUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI,JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHIQIEDUIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU,TUIJIANYUANCAILIAOZHOUQI/KEXUANXIAOFEI/XINNENGYUAN。

  摘要

  SHICHANGSHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDI,WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGGEJUDEPANDUAN。ZAIYIMIAOCUIHUAHOU,2021NIANQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUYIJINGCHENGWEITOUZIZHEDEGONGSHI,GUONEIZHOUQI、JINRONGGUPIAOYUQUANQIUDAZONGPIN(TONG、LV、TIEKUANG、TAIBAIFENDENG)DESHANGZHANGKAISHIDINGJIAYUANQIXUQIUDEHUINUAN。WOMENRENWEI,XIAYIJIEDUANWEILAIQUANQIUFUSUDEJIEZOUYUXIELVXIANGDUIYUFANGXIANGERYANDUIYUYINGLIYUQIYIJIGUPIAODINGJIAGENGWEIZHONGYAO。LINGYIFANGMIAN,GUONEIZHENGCEDEHUITUIYIJIXINYONGSHOUJINDEYUQIRENGSHIYUESHUTOUZIZHEFENGXIANPIANHAOTAISHENGYUSHICHANGTUPOSHANGYANDEGUANJIAN。WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGDEPANDUAN,YINGLIDEXIUFUYULIUDONGXINGSHOUJINYUQIDELAJUJUEDINGLEDANGQIANSHICHANGDEYUQISHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDIDEGEJU。DIAOZHENGZHIZHONGZHUBUJIACANG,TOUZIZHEDUIQUANQIUFUSUDEFENGXIANPINGJIAJIANGDI,JIAOYIFUSURENGSHIDANGQIANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN,KANHAOCHUNJIZAODONGDIEJIAKUANIANPEIZHIDAILAIDEGUPIAOTOUZIJIHUI。

  DIAOZHENGBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI,JIAOYIFUSURENGSHISHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。ZAI“GONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE”、“SHUANGXUNHUAN”HOU,12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYISHOUTI“XUQIUCEGAIGE”,WOMENRENWEIWEIRAOKUODANEIXUYIXINGCHENGXINDEZHENGCESILUYUZHENGCECHUBEI,YOUWANGZAIWEILAIZHUBULUODI,TUIDONGNEIXUDEYOUXIAOKUOZHANG。CIWAI,CONGQUANQIUDEJIAODUKAN,QUANQIUGONGYECHANCHUZENGSUYUMAOYIZENGSUZAI2019NIANDIBIANYIXIAJIANGZHIGUOQU20NIANDEJIAODISHUIPING,2020NIANQUANQIUYIQINGJIASUEHUALEGONGYESHENGCHANYUMAOYIWANGLAI,BINGJINYIBUCHUQINGLESHEHUIKUCUN。ZAI2021NIANSHANGBANNIANWOMENHUIKANDAOXUQIU(NEISHENGDEXIUFU)YUGONGJI(BUKU)YIJIHAIWAIKUANSONGDEJINRONGTIAOJIANOUHE,GUONEIYUGUOWAIDEXIUFUJIANGGONGZHEN,YOUQISHICHUKOULIANTIAOJIANGDEDAOJIAODACHENGDUDEGAISHAN。JIAOYIYUANQIDEFUSURENGSHIXIAYIJIEDUANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。FUSUFANGXIANGMINGQUE,XIELVYOUWANGCHAOYUQI,DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJUJIHUI。

  GUONEIYUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI,JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHITONGSHIDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU。XIANGBIYUOUYANGXINGYUMEILIANCHUKUODABIANJIKUANSONG,GUONEIZHENGCEJIASUZHENGCHANGHUA,HAINEIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI。JINGUAN12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIBAOLIULE“LIUWEN、LIUBAO”DEBIAOSHU,DANSHIXIANGDUIYU7YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIGUANYUWENZENGZHANGDEBIAOSHUMINGXIANJIANSHAO,ZHENGCEJIDIAOZHUANXIANG“KEXUEJINGZHUNSHISHIHONGGUANZHENGCE”,ZHEIBEIHOUYINHANDESHIZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGHUAYIJIZONGLIANGZHENGCEDETUICHUQINGXIANG。ZI2018NIANXIABANNIANYILAI,GUONEIHONGGUANZHENGCEBAOCHILEYIGEXIANGDUIKUANSONGDEGEJU,WEIJINLIANGNIANGUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIDEKUOZHANGTIGONGLEJIAOWEIYOUHAODEHUANJING。DANCHAOSHUIJIJIANGTUNQU,WUFENGXIANLILVZHONGSHUTAISHENG,GUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIKUOZHANGDEDONGNENGJIANGBIANJIFANGHUAN,ZAIGAIHUANJINGXIAWOMENRENWEITOUZIDEZHONGXINZHUANXIANGYINGLI,BINGQIEDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANGENGZHANYOU。

  围绕盈利景气,布局三朵金花。市场调整便是布局良机,复苏预期下我们看好春季躁动与跨年行情,布局:1)第一朵金花:从基建地产周期转向全球原材料周期。基建地产托底弱化,国内定价让位于全球定价,看好石化(炼化、油服)/基化(MDI、钛白粉)/铜/铝等投资机会,推荐中海油服()(行情601808,/云铝股份()(行情000807,/紫金矿业()(行情601899,。2)第二朵金花:从必选消费转向可选消费。后疫情时期,家电/汽车/酒店/旅游/家具/纺服等改善有望加速,推荐:吉利汽车、爱美客()(行情300896,等。3)第三朵金花:集中精力,新能源科技。推荐:宁德时代()(行情300750,/容百科技(行情688005,/先导智能()(行情300450,/赣锋锂业()(行情002460,等。

  目录

  1. 维持3100-3500震荡格局的判断

  2. 调整后便是布局良机,交易复苏仍是市场核心主线

  3. 占优策略:具有盈利优势同时对国内政策回退低敏感性的资产

  4. 围绕盈利景气,布局三朵金花

  5. 五维数据全景图

  1

  维持3100-3500震荡格局的判断

  SHICHANGSHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDI,WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGGEJUDEPANDUAN。11YUE9RIGUOJUNCELVETUANDUIFABUCELVEBAOGAO《CHONGJIZHENDANGSHANGYAN》,PANDUANBISHIQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUYUZAITONGZHANGDIYUQIJIANGKUAISUDISHANGSHENG。QIHOU,SHANGZHENGZHISHUZAI11YUEMO12YUECHUBIJIN3500DIAN。GUONEIZHOUQI、JINRONGGUPIAOYUQUANQIUDAZONGPIN(TONG、LV、TIEKUANG、TAIBAIFENDENG)DESHANGZHANGKAISHIDINGJIAYUANQIXUQIUDEHUINUAN。WOMENRENWEI,XIAYIJIEDUANWEILAIQUANQIUFUSUDEJIEZOUYUXIELVXIANGDUIYUFANGXIANGERYANDUIYUYINGLIYUQIYIJIGUPIAODINGJIAGENGWEIZHONGYAO。LINGYIFANGMIAN,GUONEIZHENGCEDEHUITUIYIJIXINYONGSHOUJINDEYUQIRENGSHIYUESHUTOUZIZHEFENGXIANPIANHAOTAISHENGYUSHICHANGTUPOSHANGYANDEGUANJIAN。WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGDEPANDUAN,YINGLIDEXIUFUYULIUDONGXINGSHOUJINYUQIDELAJUJUEDINGLEDANGQIANSHICHANGDEYUQISHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDIDEGEJU。DIAOZHENGZHIZHONGZHUBUJIACANG,TOUZIZHEDUIQUANQIUFUSUDEFENGXIANPINGJIAJIANGDI,JIAOYIFUSURENGSHIDANGQIANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN,KANHAOCHUNJIZAODONGDIEJIAKUANIANPEIZHIDAILAIDEGUPIAOTOUZIJIHUI。

  2

  调整后便是布局良机,交易复苏仍是市场核心主线

  DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI,JIAOYIFUSURENGSHISHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。ZAI“GONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE”、“SHUANGXUNHUAN”HOU,12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYISHOUTI“XUQIUCEGAIGE”,WOMENRENWEIWEIRAOKUODANEIXUYIXINGCHENGXINDEZHENGCESILUYUZHENGCECHUBEI,YOUWANGZAIWEILAIZHUBULUODI,TUIDONGNEIXUDEYOUXIAOKUOZHANG。CIWAI,CONGQUANQIUDEJIAODUKAN,QUANQIUGONGYECHANCHUZENGSUYUMAOYIZENGSUZAI2019NIANDIBIANYIXIAJIANGZHIGUOQU20NIANDEJIAODISHUIPING,2020NIANQUANQIUYIQINGJIASUEHUALEGONGYESHENGCHANYUMAOYIWANGLAI,BINGJINYIBUCHUQINGLESHEHUIKUCUN。ZAI2021NIANSHANGBANNIANWOMENHUIKANDAOXUQIU(NEISHENGDEXIUFU)YUGONGJI(BUKU)YIJIHAIWAIKUANSONGDEJINRONGTIAOJIANOUHE,GUONEIYUGUOWAIDEXIUFUJIANGGONGZHEN,YOUQISHICHUKOULIANTIAOJIANGDEDAOJIAODACHENGDUDEGAISHAN。JIAOYIYUANQIDEFUSURENGSHIXIAYIJIEDUANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。FUSUFANGXIANGMINGQUE,XIELVYOUWANGCHAOYUQI,DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJUJIHUI。

  3

  占优策略:具有盈利优势同时对国内政策回退低敏感性的资产

  GUONEIYUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI,JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHITONGSHIDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU。XIANGBIYUOUYANGXINGYUMEILIANCHUKUODALIUDONGXINGTOUFANG,GUONEIZHENGCEJIASUZHENGCHANGHUA,HAINEIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI。JINGUAN12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIBAOLIULE“LIUWEN、LIUBAO”DEBIAOSHU,DANSHIXIANGDUIYU7YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIGUANYUWENZENGZHANGDEBIAOSHUMINGXIANJIANSHAO,ZHENGCEJIDIAOZHUANXIANG“KEXUEJINGZHUNDESHISHIHONGGUANZHENGCE”,ZHEIBEIHOUYINHANDESHIZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGHUAYIJIZONGLIANGZHENGCEDETUICHUQINGXIANG。ZI2018NIANXIABANNIANYILAI,HONGGUANZHENGCEXIANGDUIBAOCHILEYIGEKUANSONGDEGEJU,WEIJINLIANGNIANGUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIDEKUOZHANGTIGONGLEJIAOWEIYOUHAODEHUANJING。DANCHAOSHUIJIJIANGTUNQU,WUFENGXIANLILVDEZHONGSHUTAISHENG,GUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIKUOZHANGDEDONGNENGJIANGBIANJIFANGHUAN。WOMENKAOCHALEZAIGUOQU20NIANDANGZHONGLIUCIGUONEILIUDONGXINGSHOUJINXIADESHICHANGBIAOXIAN,WOMENFAXIANGUPIAOSHICHANGDEGUZHIJUNHUISHOUDAOYAJIANG,ZAIFENGGETEZHENGDANGZHONGDIGUZHIYUJIYOUDEGUPIAONENGGOUHUODEJIAOKAOQIANDEXIANGDUISHOUYI。ZONGDELAIKAN,WOMENRENWEITOUZIDEZHONGXINZHUANXIANGYINGLI,BINGQIEDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANGENGZHANYOU。

  4

  围绕盈利景气,布局三朵金花

  WEIRAOYINGLIJINGQI,BUJUSANDUOJINHUA。DIYIDUOJINHUA:CONGJIJIANDICHANZHOUQIZHUANXIANGQUANQIUYUANCAILIAOZHOUQI。JINGJIZENGZHANGFALIDIANJIANGYOUJIJIANDICHANZHUANXIANGCHUKOU,GUONEIDINGJIAZHOUQIPINJIANGRANGWEIYUQUANQIUDINGJIAZHOUQIPIN,TUIJIAN:SHIHUA(LIANHUA/YOUFU)/JIHUA(MDI、TAIBAIFEN)/TONG/LV。DIERDUOJINHUA:CONGBIXUANXIAOFEIZHUANXIANGKEXUANXIAOFEI。SUIZHEGUONEIGUOWAIZHENGZHIHEJINGJIHUANJINGDEQUEDINGXINGZENGQIANG,DIFENGXIANDEBIXUANXIAOFEIPINGUPIAODEQUEDINGXINGYIJIAJIANGHUIBIANJIJIANRUO,YINGLIXIUFUJIFENGXIANPINGJIAXIAJIANGSHIDEKEXUANXIAOFEIJIANGYOUYUBIXUANXIAOFEI,TUIJIAN:JIADIAN/QICHE/JIUDIAN/LVYOU/JIAJU/FANGFU。DISANDUOJINHUA:JIZHONGJINGLI,XINNENGYUANKEJI。FENGXIANPIANHAOWEIZHIRENGSHIZHONGDISHUIPING,KEJIFENGGEZHONGRENGYAOXUANQUYOUYINGLIDESAIDAO。BANSUICHANYEGEJUYOUHUA、JISHUGEXINJIASU,JISHUHECHANPINJUNDEDAORENKEDEXINNENGYUANQICHECHANYELIANJINGQIDURENGJIANGCHAOCHUSHICHANGYUQI,TUIJIANXINNENGYUANCHANYELIANXIANGGUANTOUZIJIHUI。

  5

  五维数据全景图

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(本文内容仅供参考,并不构成投资建议!投资者据此操作,风险自担。)

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