本报告导读
3100-3500ZHENDANG，DIAOZHENGBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI。GUONEIZHENGCEZHENGCHANGHUA，YUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI，JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHIQIEDUIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU，TUIJIANYUANCAILIAOZHOUQI/KEXUANXIAOFEI/XINNENGYUAN。
摘要
SHICHANGSHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDI，WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGGEJUDEPANDUAN。ZAIYIMIAOCUIHUAHOU，2021NIANQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUYIJINGCHENGWEITOUZIZHEDEGONGSHI，GUONEIZHOUQI、JINRONGGUPIAOYUQUANQIUDAZONGPIN（TONG、LV、TIEKUANG、TAIBAIFENDENG）DESHANGZHANGKAISHIDINGJIAYUANQIXUQIUDEHUINUAN。WOMENRENWEI，XIAYIJIEDUANWEILAIQUANQIUFUSUDEJIEZOUYUXIELVXIANGDUIYUFANGXIANGERYANDUIYUYINGLIYUQIYIJIGUPIAODINGJIAGENGWEIZHONGYAO。LINGYIFANGMIAN，GUONEIZHENGCEDEHUITUIYIJIXINYONGSHOUJINDEYUQIRENGSHIYUESHUTOUZIZHEFENGXIANPIANHAOTAISHENGYUSHICHANGTUPOSHANGYANDEGUANJIAN。WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGDEPANDUAN，YINGLIDEXIUFUYULIUDONGXINGSHOUJINYUQIDELAJUJUEDINGLEDANGQIANSHICHANGDEYUQISHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDIDEGEJU。DIAOZHENGZHIZHONGZHUBUJIACANG，TOUZIZHEDUIQUANQIUFUSUDEFENGXIANPINGJIAJIANGDI，JIAOYIFUSURENGSHIDANGQIANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN，KANHAOCHUNJIZAODONGDIEJIAKUANIANPEIZHIDAILAIDEGUPIAOTOUZIJIHUI。
DIAOZHENGBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI，JIAOYIFUSURENGSHISHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。ZAI“GONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE”、“SHUANGXUNHUAN”HOU，12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYISHOUTI“XUQIUCEGAIGE”，WOMENRENWEIWEIRAOKUODANEIXUYIXINGCHENGXINDEZHENGCESILUYUZHENGCECHUBEI，YOUWANGZAIWEILAIZHUBULUODI，TUIDONGNEIXUDEYOUXIAOKUOZHANG。CIWAI，CONGQUANQIUDEJIAODUKAN，QUANQIUGONGYECHANCHUZENGSUYUMAOYIZENGSUZAI2019NIANDIBIANYIXIAJIANGZHIGUOQU20NIANDEJIAODISHUIPING，2020NIANQUANQIUYIQINGJIASUEHUALEGONGYESHENGCHANYUMAOYIWANGLAI，BINGJINYIBUCHUQINGLESHEHUIKUCUN。ZAI2021NIANSHANGBANNIANWOMENHUIKANDAOXUQIU（NEISHENGDEXIUFU）YUGONGJI（BUKU）YIJIHAIWAIKUANSONGDEJINRONGTIAOJIANOUHE，GUONEIYUGUOWAIDEXIUFUJIANGGONGZHEN，YOUQISHICHUKOULIANTIAOJIANGDEDAOJIAODACHENGDUDEGAISHAN。JIAOYIYUANQIDEFUSURENGSHIXIAYIJIEDUANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。FUSUFANGXIANGMINGQUE，XIELVYOUWANGCHAOYUQI，DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJUJIHUI。
GUONEIYUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI，JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHITONGSHIDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU。XIANGBIYUOUYANGXINGYUMEILIANCHUKUODABIANJIKUANSONG，GUONEIZHENGCEJIASUZHENGCHANGHUA，HAINEIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI。JINGUAN12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIBAOLIULE“LIUWEN、LIUBAO”DEBIAOSHU，DANSHIXIANGDUIYU7YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIGUANYUWENZENGZHANGDEBIAOSHUMINGXIANJIANSHAO，ZHENGCEJIDIAOZHUANXIANG“KEXUEJINGZHUNSHISHIHONGGUANZHENGCE”，ZHEIBEIHOUYINHANDESHIZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGHUAYIJIZONGLIANGZHENGCEDETUICHUQINGXIANG。ZI2018NIANXIABANNIANYILAI，GUONEIHONGGUANZHENGCEBAOCHILEYIGEXIANGDUIKUANSONGDEGEJU，WEIJINLIANGNIANGUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIDEKUOZHANGTIGONGLEJIAOWEIYOUHAODEHUANJING。DANCHAOSHUIJIJIANGTUNQU，WUFENGXIANLILVZHONGSHUTAISHENG，GUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIKUOZHANGDEDONGNENGJIANGBIANJIFANGHUAN，ZAIGAIHUANJINGXIAWOMENRENWEITOUZIDEZHONGXINZHUANXIANGYINGLI，BINGQIEDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANGENGZHANYOU。
围绕盈利景气，布局三朵金花。市场调整便是布局良机，复苏预期下我们看好春季躁动与跨年行情，布局：1）第一朵金花：从基建地产周期转向全球原材料周期。基建地产托底弱化，国内定价让位于全球定价，看好石化（炼化、油服）/基化（MDI、钛白粉）/铜/铝等投资机会，推荐中海油服（）(行情601808,/云铝股份（）(行情000807,/紫金矿业（）(行情601899,。2）第二朵金花：从必选消费转向可选消费。后疫情时期，家电/汽车/酒店/旅游/家具/纺服等改善有望加速，推荐：吉利汽车、爱美客（）(行情300896,等。3）第三朵金花：集中精力，新能源科技。推荐：宁德时代（）(行情300750,/容百科技(行情688005,/先导智能（）(行情300450,/赣锋锂业（）(行情002460,等。
目录
1． 维持3100-3500震荡格局的判断
2． 调整后便是布局良机，交易复苏仍是市场核心主线
3． 占优策略：具有盈利优势同时对国内政策回退低敏感性的资产
4． 围绕盈利景气，布局三朵金花
5． 五维数据全景图
1
维持3100-3500震荡格局的判断
SHICHANGSHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDI，WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGGEJUDEPANDUAN。11YUE9RIGUOJUNCELVETUANDUIFABUCELVEBAOGAO《CHONGJIZHENDANGSHANGYAN》，PANDUANBISHIQUANQIUJINGJIFUSUYUZAITONGZHANGDIYUQIJIANGKUAISUDISHANGSHENG。QIHOU，SHANGZHENGZHISHUZAI11YUEMO12YUECHUBIJIN3500DIAN。GUONEIZHOUQI、JINRONGGUPIAOYUQUANQIUDAZONGPIN（TONG、LV、TIEKUANG、TAIBAIFENDENG）DESHANGZHANGKAISHIDINGJIAYUANQIXUQIUDEHUINUAN。WOMENRENWEI，XIAYIJIEDUANWEILAIQUANQIUFUSUDEJIEZOUYUXIELVXIANGDUIYUFANGXIANGERYANDUIYUYINGLIYUQIYIJIGUPIAODINGJIAGENGWEIZHONGYAO。LINGYIFANGMIAN，GUONEIZHENGCEDEHUITUIYIJIXINYONGSHOUJINDEYUQIRENGSHIYUESHUTOUZIZHEFENGXIANPIANHAOTAISHENGYUSHICHANGTUPOSHANGYANDEGUANJIAN。WEICHI3100-3500ZHENDANGDEPANDUAN，YINGLIDEXIUFUYULIUDONGXINGSHOUJINYUQIDELAJUJUEDINGLEDANGQIANSHICHANGDEYUQISHANGYOUDING、XIAYOUDIDEGEJU。DIAOZHENGZHIZHONGZHUBUJIACANG，TOUZIZHEDUIQUANQIUFUSUDEFENGXIANPINGJIAJIANGDI，JIAOYIFUSURENGSHIDANGQIANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN，KANHAOCHUNJIZAODONGDIEJIAKUANIANPEIZHIDAILAIDEGUPIAOTOUZIJIHUI。
2
调整后便是布局良机，交易复苏仍是市场核心主线
DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJULIANGJI，JIAOYIFUSURENGSHISHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。ZAI“GONGJICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE”、“SHUANGXUNHUAN”HOU，12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYISHOUTI“XUQIUCEGAIGE”，WOMENRENWEIWEIRAOKUODANEIXUYIXINGCHENGXINDEZHENGCESILUYUZHENGCECHUBEI，YOUWANGZAIWEILAIZHUBULUODI，TUIDONGNEIXUDEYOUXIAOKUOZHANG。CIWAI，CONGQUANQIUDEJIAODUKAN，QUANQIUGONGYECHANCHUZENGSUYUMAOYIZENGSUZAI2019NIANDIBIANYIXIAJIANGZHIGUOQU20NIANDEJIAODISHUIPING，2020NIANQUANQIUYIQINGJIASUEHUALEGONGYESHENGCHANYUMAOYIWANGLAI，BINGJINYIBUCHUQINGLESHEHUIKUCUN。ZAI2021NIANSHANGBANNIANWOMENHUIKANDAOXUQIU（NEISHENGDEXIUFU）YUGONGJI（BUKU）YIJIHAIWAIKUANSONGDEJINRONGTIAOJIANOUHE，GUONEIYUGUOWAIDEXIUFUJIANGGONGZHEN，YOUQISHICHUKOULIANTIAOJIANGDEDAOJIAODACHENGDUDEGAISHAN。JIAOYIYUANQIDEFUSURENGSHIXIAYIJIEDUANSHICHANGDEHEXINZHUXIAN。FUSUFANGXIANGMINGQUE，XIELVYOUWANGCHAOYUQI，DIAOZHENGHOUBIANSHIBUJUJIHUI。
3
占优策略：具有盈利优势同时对国内政策回退低敏感性的资产
GUONEIYUHAIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI，JUYOUYINGLIYOUSHITONGSHIDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANZHANYOU。XIANGBIYUOUYANGXINGYUMEILIANCHUKUODALIUDONGXINGTOUFANG，GUONEIZHENGCEJIASUZHENGCHANGHUA，HAINEIWAIJINRONGZHOUQIKAISHICUOWEI。JINGUAN12YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIBAOLIULE“LIUWEN、LIUBAO”DEBIAOSHU，DANSHIXIANGDUIYU7YUEZHENGZHIJUHUIYIGUANYUWENZENGZHANGDEBIAOSHUMINGXIANJIANSHAO，ZHENGCEJIDIAOZHUANXIANG“KEXUEJINGZHUNDESHISHIHONGGUANZHENGCE”，ZHEIBEIHOUYINHANDESHIZHENGCEDEZHENGCHANGHUAYIJIZONGLIANGZHENGCEDETUICHUQINGXIANG。ZI2018NIANXIABANNIANYILAI，HONGGUANZHENGCEXIANGDUIBAOCHILEYIGEKUANSONGDEGEJU，WEIJINLIANGNIANGUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIDEKUOZHANGTIGONGLEJIAOWEIYOUHAODEHUANJING。DANCHAOSHUIJIJIANGTUNQU，WUFENGXIANLILVDEZHONGSHUTAISHENG，GUPIAOSHICHANGGUZHIKUOZHANGDEDONGNENGJIANGBIANJIFANGHUAN。WOMENKAOCHALEZAIGUOQU20NIANDANGZHONGLIUCIGUONEILIUDONGXINGSHOUJINXIADESHICHANGBIAOXIAN，WOMENFAXIANGUPIAOSHICHANGDEGUZHIJUNHUISHOUDAOYAJIANG，ZAIFENGGETEZHENGDANGZHONGDIGUZHIYUJIYOUDEGUPIAONENGGOUHUODEJIAOKAOQIANDEXIANGDUISHOUYI。ZONGDELAIKAN，WOMENRENWEITOUZIDEZHONGXINZHUANXIANGYINGLI，BINGQIEDUIGUONEIZHENGCEHUITUIDIMINGANXINGDEZICHANGENGZHANYOU。
4
围绕盈利景气，布局三朵金花
WEIRAOYINGLIJINGQI，BUJUSANDUOJINHUA。DIYIDUOJINHUA：CONGJIJIANDICHANZHOUQIZHUANXIANGQUANQIUYUANCAILIAOZHOUQI。JINGJIZENGZHANGFALIDIANJIANGYOUJIJIANDICHANZHUANXIANGCHUKOU，GUONEIDINGJIAZHOUQIPINJIANGRANGWEIYUQUANQIUDINGJIAZHOUQIPIN，TUIJIAN：SHIHUA（LIANHUA/YOUFU）/JIHUA（MDI、TAIBAIFEN）/TONG/LV。DIERDUOJINHUA：CONGBIXUANXIAOFEIZHUANXIANGKEXUANXIAOFEI。SUIZHEGUONEIGUOWAIZHENGZHIHEJINGJIHUANJINGDEQUEDINGXINGZENGQIANG，DIFENGXIANDEBIXUANXIAOFEIPINGUPIAODEQUEDINGXINGYIJIAJIANGHUIBIANJIJIANRUO，YINGLIXIUFUJIFENGXIANPINGJIAXIAJIANGSHIDEKEXUANXIAOFEIJIANGYOUYUBIXUANXIAOFEI，TUIJIAN：JIADIAN/QICHE/JIUDIAN/LVYOU/JIAJU/FANGFU。DISANDUOJINHUA：JIZHONGJINGLI，XINNENGYUANKEJI。FENGXIANPIANHAOWEIZHIRENGSHIZHONGDISHUIPING，KEJIFENGGEZHONGRENGYAOXUANQUYOUYINGLIDESAIDAO。BANSUICHANYEGEJUYOUHUA、JISHUGEXINJIASU，JISHUHECHANPINJUNDEDAORENKEDEXINNENGYUANQICHECHANYELIANJINGQIDURENGJIANGCHAOCHUSHICHANGYUQI，TUIJIANXINNENGYUANCHANYELIANXIANGGUANTOUZIJIHUI。
5
五维数据全景图
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